今日全球经济:关于四月份劳动力报告的五个问题

今日全球经济:关于四月份劳动力报告的五个问题

Five Questions on the April Labor Reports -- The Global Economy NOW

 

版权所有 © DeepMacro Inc.

作者:Jeffrey Young

 

“本月我们对非农就业人数的预测值低于共识水平。” —— 纽约时间2022年5月2日上午10:38。

"This month we are below consensus on the nonfarm payroll forecast." - 02 May 2022 10:38 AM NY time.

 

1. DeepMacro对非农就业人数的预测值是多少,比共识水平高还是低?

What is your forecast for NFP and is it above or below consensus?

 

35.8万,低于共识水平。358K, which is below consensus.

 

我们对整体非农就业人数的“预测值”为+35.8万,而彭博社的共识水平为39万(截至纽约时间2022年5月2日上午7:30),三月份的最初数据为43.1万。主要原因是:

Our "precast" for total nonfarm payrolls (NFP) is +358K, versus a Bloomberg consensus of 390K (as of 7:30 AM NY time 2 May 2022) and the preliminary March print of 431K. The main reasons are:

  • 四月份,公司人力资源网站上发布的新增就业岗位数的增长放缓(见图1a)。Growth in new job offers posted on company HR websites slowed in April (see Figure 1a).
  • 整体经济增长几乎没有显示出上行势头(尽管经济增长的水平按照DeepMacro专有的经济增长因子衡量(高于趋势值2.97个标准差,与一个月前相比基本没有变化)仍然相当坚挺)。Overall economic growth shows little upward momentum (even though the level of growth remains quite firm, as measureds by the proprietary DeepMacro growth factor (2.97 standard deviations above trend, essentially unchanged from one month ago)).
  • 涵盖餐饮、临时雇工等重要行业的高频数据在四月表现疲软,且在本月,转向当地运输的行业转变可能已经暂停。High frequency data covering important sectors such as restaurants, and temp staffing, were soft in April, and the sectoral shift toward local transportation may have paused during the month.

 

图1a. 新增就业岗位数和新入职人数,2020年1月1日-2022年4月16日(21天移动平均数的年变化百分比)

Figure 1a. New Job Offers and Jobs Filled, 1 Jan 2020 - 16 Apr 2022 (Yr-Yr Pct Chg of 21-day Moving Average)

注:橙色=三月份报告的调查期间;蓝色=四月份报告的调查期间。我们主要的就业数据源是大约30,000家美国公司人力资源网站上的招聘信息。当一家公司在其网站上发布工作广告时,我们将其视为一个“新增岗位”。如果一则这样的广告从网站撤下,我们则将其算成一个“已入职岗位”。 新增岗位代表公司对劳动力的需求,因此可以成为就业增长的主要指标。我们亦发现,新增就业岗位总数,加上其他变量,例如衡量整体经济周期的强弱的深数宏观(DeepMacro)“经济增长因子”,能对月非农就业人数做出解释。

Notes: Orange = survey period for March reports; Blue = survey period for April reports. Our primary data source for employment is job postings on HR websites of about 30,000 US companies. When a company posts an advertisement for a job on its website, we count it as a new "offer." When the posting comes down, we estimate that the job has been "filled." A new offer indicates an increase in corporate demand for labor, which is a leading indicator of jobs growth. We also find that the sum of all these new openings has explanatory power for the monthly NFP number, along with other variables such as the overall strength of the business cycle, as measured by the DeepMacro economic growth factor.

来源:DeepMacro Inc.和LinkUp/Smart Market Data.

 

2. “大数据”对四月份的行业趋势有何看法?

What does "Big Data" say about sectoral trends in April?

 

餐饮和临时雇工放缓;但要注意向运输和专业服务方面的结构性转变带来的上行风险。

Restaurants and temp staff slowed; but watch structural shift to transportation and professional services for upside risks.

 

查看(来自劳工统计局的)官方数据:按照行业来看,休闲/酒店业的就业与疫情前水平相比,下降最多(-147.4万就业,几乎占了全部“疫情造成的就业缺口”——157.9万就业,见图2a)。政府部门也有大幅下降(-71万就业),但与休闲/酒店业(-8.7%)的下降相比,政府部门的就业下降占疫情前就业水平的份额更小(-3.1%)。一些行业的就业超过了其疫情前的水平(运输/仓储/零售,以及专业服务),这指向有利于这些行业的结构性转变。

Looking at the official data (from the Bureau of Labor Statistics): by sector, leisure/hospitality jobs are down the most from the pre-covid level (-1.474 million jobs, nearly accounting for the entire net "covid gap" of 1,579 million jobs, see Figure 2a). Government (-710K jobs) is also down significantly, although this shortfall is a smaller percentage of the pre-pandemic employment level (-3.1%) than the shortfall for leisure/hospitality is (-8.7%). Jobs in sn some sectors exceed their pre-pandemic levels (transportation/warehousing/retail, and professional services), pointing to a structural shift in favor of these sectors.

 

图2a. 美国:按行业划分的就业变化,净值,2020年2月-2022年3月(就业以千为单位)

Figure 2a. US: Change in Jobs, Net and by Sector, Feb 2020 - Mar 2022 (Thousands of Jobs)

来源:DeepMacro, Inc.

 

那么,这些关键行业四月份的情况可能会是怎样呢?

So what is likely for April in these key sectors?

 

  • 餐饮业:与三月份的就业数(6.1万,这已经只是2021年11月-12月每月平均12.5万增长的一半)相比,可能会有下行变化。主要原因在于四月份“在餐厅就餐者”与三月份基本持平,该指标与餐饮业的就业有很好的相关性(见图2b)。 Restaurants : Jobs likely to downshift from March's jobs (61K, which was already only half the average gain of 125K per month in Nov-Dec 2021). The main reason why is that "seated diners" in April were basically flat versus March, and this indicator has a good correlation with jobs in the restaurant sector (see Figure 2b).

 

图2b. 美国:在餐厅就餐者vs.酒店/休闲行业就业,2020年6月1日-2022年4月26日(与2019年相比的变化百分比,就业以千为单位)

Figure 2b. US: Seated Diners at Restaurants vs. Hospitality/Leisure Jobs, 1 Jun 2020 - 26 Apr 2022 (Pct Change From 2019 and Thousands of Jobs)

来源:DeepMacro, Inc.

 

  • 临时工作:与三月份相比也基本持平:美国工作人员协会提供的临时工作指数在三月份和四月份的非农就业人数调查期间是持平的(见图2c)。与餐饮行业相同,这一行业在最近几个月也有明显的下行变化(三月份增加了5千,而之前的三个月每月增长的平均值为3.7万)。Temp jobs : Also pretty flat versus March: the index of temp jobs by the American Staffing Association was flat between the March and April NFP survey periods (see Figure 2c). As with restaurants, this sector has also seen a notable downshifting in recent months (up 5K in March, versus an average of 37K per month in the three prior months).

 

图2c. 美国:美国工作人员协会临时工作指数,2021年4月17日-2022年4月17日(2006年6月取值100,周变化百分比)

Figure 2c. US: American Staffing Association Staffing Index, 17 Apr 2021 - 17 Apr 2022 (Jun 2006 = 100 and Wk-Wk Pct Chg)

来源:DeepMacro, Inc.

 

  • 增长的行业:不要只看那些没有弥补“新冠疫情造成的缺口”的行业。有几个行业实现了强劲的增长,并且使劳动力经济展现出了活力。运输/零售/批发和专业服务行业的就业已经大大超过了其疫情前的水平。更深入地挖掘,运输行业的增长大部分来自于当地运输和仓储服务,这肯定反映了自疫情以来,向更多在线购物及派送的转变。Growth sectors: Let's not only look at which sectors have not made up the "covid gap". There are several sectors that have posted strong growth, and these paint a picture of dynamism in the labor economy. Jobs in transportation/retail/wholesale and professional services have meaningfully exceeded their pre-pandemic levels. Digging deeper, the increase in transportation is mostly due to local transportation and warehousing services, which must reflect the shift toward more online purchasing and delivery since the pandemic.

 

那些受疫情影响“宅在家中”的公司和行业显然没有出现这种繁荣,但到目前为止我们在这些行业中看到的就业增长也很好地提醒我们美国劳动力市场潜在的活力。市场想要的不仅仅是回到疫情前的状态。市场想要进化。

The bloom is clearly off a lot of pandemic, "stay at home" companies and sectors, but the job growth seen to date in these sectors is a good reminder of the underlying dynamism of the US labor market. It doesn't merely want to go back to the status quo ante at the time of the pandemic. It wants to evolve.

 

3. 通货膨胀与行业招聘之间是否存在相关性?

Is there any correlation between inflation and sectoral hiring?

 

似乎有——利润率较高的行业仍然在招聘,利润率较低的行业在减少招聘。

Looks like it -- higher margin sectors maintain hiring, lower margin sectors cut hiring.

 

图3a显示了按行业分解的新增就业岗位数的年变化。我们可以看到最强劲的行业是金融、运输和科技。金融和科技是营业利润率最高的两个行业(我们将在第4个问题中看到)。因疫情而有所增长的运输和专业服务行业也维持着良好的劳动力需求。但利润率相对较低的行业,如住宿/餐饮和零售,在新增就业方面的下跌幅度最大。

Figure 3a shows new job offers, year to year change, broken down by sector. We can see that the strongest sectors are finance, transport, and tech. Finance and tech are the two sectors that have the highest operating profit margin (as we will see in Question 4). The pandemic growers transport and professional services also have maintained healthy labor demand. But sectors such as accommodation/food services and retail, which have relatively low profit margins, are seeing the largest reduction in new job offers.

 

利润率是关键。受到成本上涨冲击的公司不得不在所有可能的方面控制成本,而劳动力通常是所有公司最大的成本。这可能是金融和科技等高利润率行业到目前为止还可以维持招聘,而餐饮等较低利润率行业则快速减少招聘的原因。

Profit margins are the key. Companies that are getting walloped by higher costs have to control costs wherever they can, and labor is usually the largest cost of any business. This could be why high-margin sectors such as finance and tech have maintained hiring plans so far, and lower-margin sectors such as restaurants have cut more quickly.

 

图3a. 美国:各行业的新增就业,2022年4月16日(21天移动总数的年变化百分比)

Figure 3a. US: New Job Offers by Industry, 16 Apr 2022 (Yr-Yr Pct Chg of 21 Day Moving Sum)

来源:DeepMacro Inc. and LinkUp/Smart Market Data.

 

4. 薪资增长能否跟上通货膨胀的步伐?

Will wage growth keep pace with inflation?

 

不能。No.

 

首先,薪资增长最近一直都未曾跟上通货膨胀的步伐。通货膨胀率在2021年4月飙升至超过了平均时薪,而且二者之间的差距还在逐月增加。

First, they haven't been. Inflation shot above average hourly earnings in Apr 2021, and if anything the gap has been increasing month.

 

其次且更为根本的是,企业利润率没有高到足以使薪资增长赶上通货膨胀率。图4a显示了几个主要行业的营业利润率。科技和金融(未显示)行业的利润率很高。除此之外,高于平均利润率的行业只有能源和材料行业,这二者是得益于大宗商品价格的上涨。更接近最终需求的行业(必需消费品、工业,甚至非必需消费品行业)的利润率一直接近平均水平。面对其他成本冲击时,这些行业可能会控制薪资成本。

Second and more fundamentally, corporate profit margins are not high enough for wage gains to match the rate of inflation. Figure 4a shows the operating profit margin of several major sectors. Tech and finance (not shown) are high. Other than that, the only sectors with higher than average margins are energy and materials, which are benefitting from the rise in commodities prices. Sectors closer to final demand (consumer staples, industrials, even consumer discretionary) have been near average levels. They are likely to control wage costs in the face of other cost shocks.

 

图4a.标普500营业利润率,按行业划分,2014年1月1日-2022年4月29日(百分比)

Figure 4a. S&P500 Operating Profit Margin by Sector, 1 Jan 2014 - 29 Apr 2022 (Pct)

来源:DeepMacro, Inc.

 

5. 这如何影响DeepMacro的市场观点?

How does this affect DeepMacro market views?

 

对做空利率/做多美元的观点构成一定风险。

Some risk to paid rates/long USD view.

 

DeepMacro基于我们的大数据和人工智能驱动的模型(利率是通过STR-1模型,货币是通过FX-1模型)对利率和货币进行中期预测。目前,这些模型强势做空美元利率,并适度净做多美元(兑所有三大货币:欧元、日元和英镑)。

DeepMacro has medium-term forecasts for interest rates and currencies, based on our big data and AI-driven models (STR-1 for rates and FX-1 for currencies). Currently, these models are strongly paid US rates and moderately net long the USD (against all of the big three, EUR, JPY, and GBP).

 

图5a显示了DeepMacro基于美国的经济增长因子、通货膨胀因子和全球风险因子对美元的观点(兑20种货币的平均值)。目前,每个因子所处的阶段在一个月的远期基础上都符合美元走强的观点。经济增长因子高于趋势值,且变化几乎为零(指向少量的正收益率)。通货膨胀因子远高于趋势值,且有少量积极的变化(表明较大的正收益率)。并且全球风险因子目前所处的“高于趋势值,且有积极变化”的阶段,也与正的美元收益率相关。

Figure 5a shows the DeepMacro view for the USD (average against 20 currencies) based on the US economic growth, inflation, and global risk factors. Currently, each of the factor is in a phase that is consistent with a stronger dollar on a one-month forward looking basis. The growth factor is above trend with nearly zero momentum (pointing to a small positive return). The inflation factor is well above trend with small positive momentum (pointing to a larger positive return). And the global risk factor is now in "above trend with positive momentum" phase, which is also associated with positive USD returns.

 

当DeepMacro对非农就业人数的预测值低于市场共识水平时,作为用于风险管理的,围绕事件风险的短期预测,我们预计利率下跌,美元走软。因此本月,我们会在一定程度上削减做空利率、做多美元的中期预测。

When the DeepMacro precast for NFP is below the market consensus, as a short-term forecast around the event risk for use in risk management, we would expect rates to decline in the USD to weaken. Hence this month, we would trim the medium-term forecasts of paid rates and long USD somewhat.

 

 

图5a. 美国:基于经济增长因子、通货膨胀因子和全球风险因子的一个月远期美元预期收益率(变化百分比,绿色表示收益率走高,红色表示收益率走低)

Figure 5a. US: One-Month Expected USD Return Based on Growth, Inflation, and GRI Factors (Pct Chg, Green = Increase, Red = Decline)

注:因子以水平(x轴)和三个月变化(y轴)表示,2019年4月至2022年4月的(十年平均数标准差)。预期收益率基于2004年1月至2022年3月的历史。

Notes: Factor shown as Level (x axis) and Three-Month Change (y axis), Apr 2019 - Apr 2022 (Standard Deviations from 10 yr Mean). Expected returns based on history from Jan 2004 - Mar 2022.

来源:DeepMacro Inc.