今日全球经济:关于非农就业人数报告的五个问题

今日全球经济:关于非农就业人数报告的五个问题

Five Questions on the Nonfarm Payrolls Report-- The Global Economy NOW


版权所有 © DeepMacro Inc.

作者:Jeffrey Young


“本报告为三月份强劲的劳动力报告提供了依据。” —— 纽约时间2022年3月28日上午10:36。

"This report sets out the case for a strong set of labor reports for March." - 28 Mar 2022 10:36 AM NY time.

 

问题一:DeepMacro的预测值比共识水平高还是低?

Is DeepMacro above or below consensus?

 

高。

Above .

 

我们对整体非农就业人数(NFP)的“预测值”为+61.6万,而彭博社的共识水平为49万(截至纽约时间2022年3月28日上午7:30),二月份的最初数据为67.8万。主要原因有:

Our "precast" for total nonfarm payrolls (NFP) is +616K, versus a Bloomberg consensus of 490K (as of 7:30 am NY time 28 Mar 2022) and the preliminary February print of 678K. The main reasons are:

 

l 三月份,公司人力资源网站上发布的新增就业岗位数大幅增加。New job offers posted on company HR websites rose strongly in March.

l 随着奥密克戎疫情的消退,餐饮业等“易受新冠疫情影响的”行业增长强劲。New job offers posted on company HR websites rose strongly in March.

l DeepMacro特有的经济增长因子显示:整体经济增长仍然强劲,且高于趋势值。(这与远高于共识水平的GDP增长一致)。New job offers posted on company HR websites rose strongly in March.

 

 

问题二:通货膨胀、战争和其他风险是否在降低企业对劳动力的需求?

Are inflation, war, and other risks reducing corporate demand for labor?

 

没有。

No.

 

图1a显示了基于美国30,000家公司人力资源网站数据集的新增就业岗位数和新入职人数。三月份,新增就业岗位数上涨了超过40%,而二月份只有约30%。预计的新入职人数上涨了50%(二月份为35%)。

Figure 1a shows the number of job offers and fills from a dataset based on the HR websites of 30,000 US companies. New offers rose by more than 40% in March, versus about 30% in February. Estimated fills rose by 50% (35% in February).


截至三月份,通货膨胀连续六个月高于5%,而且自去年十二月份以来,美联储就一直发出加息的信号。这么说似乎很公平:美国经济的综合实力,以及新冠疫情的缓解(新冠疫情影响了少数行业,但影响的程度很大,如餐饮业),抵消了高通胀和加息带来的风暴。

By March, inflation had been above 5% for six months, and the Fed has been signalling higher rates since last December. It seems fair to say that the general strength of the US economy, and the easing of covid (which had been affecting a small number of sectors, but in a major way (i.e., restaurants), have offset the gathering storm from high inflation and higher interest rates.

 

图1a.新增就业岗位数和新入职人数,2020年1月1日-2022年3月12日(21天移动平均数)

Figure 1a. New Job Offers and Jobs Filled, 1 Jan 2020 - 12 Mar 2022 (21-day Moving Average)

注:橙色=二月份报告的调查期间;蓝色=三月份报告的调查期间。我们主要的就业数据源是大约30,000家美国公司人力资源网站上的招聘信息。当一家公司在其网站上发布工作广告时,我们将其视为一个“新增岗位”。如果一则这样的广告从网站撤下,我们则将其算成一个“已入职岗位”。 新增岗位代表公司对劳动力的需求,因此可以成为就业增长的主要指标。我们亦发现,新增就业岗位总数,加上其他变量,例如衡量整体经济周期的强弱的深数宏观(DeepMacro)“经济增长因子”,能对月非农就业人数做出解释。

Notes: Orange = survey period for February reports; Blue = survey period for March reports. Our primary data source for employment is job postings on HR websites of about 30,000 US companies. When a company posts an advertisement for a job on its website, we count it as a new "offer." When the posting comes down, we estimate that the job has been "filled." A new offer indicates an increase in corporate demand for labor, which is a leading indicator of jobs growth. We also find that the sum of all these new openings has explanatory power for the monthly NFP number, along with other variables such as the overall strength of the business cycle, as measured by the DeepMacro economic growth factor.

来源:DeepMacro Inc.和LinkUp/Smart Market Data.

 

 

问题三:公司招聘员工更难还是更容易?

Is it harder or easier for companies to find workers?

 

更难。

Harder.

 

图2a显示了人力资源网站上发布的新增就业岗位的平均入职时间。三月份,这一时间急剧增加至约80天。去年这一指标在45和70天之间波动,但在三月份,这一指标似乎又回到了新冠疫情最严重时期的最高水平。到2021年底,劳动力市场在清理“库存”方面取得了一些进展。最近的问题出现的原因,可能是由于可用的劳动力更少,因此需要更加努力去寻找员工入职。

Figure 2a shows the average number of days it takes to fill a new job offer posted on an HR website. In March, this time increased sharply, to about 80 days. This measure has seesawed between 45 and 70 days over the last year, but in March, it seems to have returned to the highs experienced during the worst of the covid crisis. The labor market had made some progress in clearing through late 2021. The more recent troubles is probably a function of the fact that, with fewer available workers, it takes more effort to fill openings.

 

图2a.新增就业岗位入职的时间,2020年3月-2022年3月(天)

Figure 2a. Number of Days to Fill a Job Opening, Mar 2020 - Mar 2022 (Days)

来源:DeepMacro Inc. 和LinkUp/Smart Market Data.

 

 

问题四:新冠病例的减少/限制的放宽是否提高了疫情敏感行业的就业?

Has the decline of covid cases/easing of restrictions lifted employment in covid-sensitive sectors?

 

是的。

Yes.

 

餐饮业一直是受新冠疫情影响最大的行业。该行业的就业随着几波新冠疫情的波动而起伏。在三月份,根据OpenTable的数据,在餐厅就餐者的数量比二月份大幅上涨(见图3a,绿色线),与二月份开始新冠病例的减少相对应。酒店/休闲行业的就业可能会增加。

The most affected sector has been restaurants. Employment in this sector has ebbed and flowed with the covid waves. In March, the number of seated diners according to OpenTable rose sharply from February (see Figure 3a, green line), corresponding to the decline in covid cases that had started in February. It is likely that jobs in the hospitality/leisure sector rose.

 

图3a.在餐厅就餐者vs.酒店/休闲行业就业,2020年6月1日-2022年3月(与2019年相比的变化百分比,单位为千人)

Figure 3a. Seated Diners at Restaurants vs. Hospitality/Leisure Jobs, 1 Jun 2020 - Mar 2022 (Pct Change Relative to 2019 and Thousands of Persons)

注:蓝色阴影区表示三月份报告的调查期间。蓝色点是预测的三月份酒店业就业数字。

Note: Shaded blue region = survey period for March reports. Blue dot is projected hospitality sector jobs number for March.

来源:DeepMacro Inc.和OpenTable.

 

临时雇员是另一个受疫情影响较大的行业。在几波疫情期间(最近是在奥密克戎肆虐期间,见图3b)均有所下降,然后又反弹。在三月份,尽管年同比(对应二月份非农就业人数调查期间的16.6%,三月下降到12.9%)和月环比(1.4% vs 9.2%)均有所下降,但临时雇员指数在奥密克戎疫情影响的基础上继续有所改善。我们预计这一行业的增长会接近二月份3.6万的就业增长。

Temp staffing is another covid-facing sector. It has declined during covid waves (most recently, during the Omicron wave, see Figure 3b), then bounced back. In March, the temp staffing index continued the improvement from the Omicron wave, although both year-year (12.9% from 16.6% in the February period matching the NFP survey period) and month-month (1.4% vs 9.2%) cooled. We expect growth in this sector to come close to the 36K jobs added in February.

 

图3b. 美国工作人员协会临时雇员指数,2021年3月14日-2022年3月13日(2006年6月取值100,年变化百分比)

Figure 3b. American Staffing Association Staffing Index, 14 Mar 2021 - 13 Mar 2022 (Jun 2006 = 100 and Yr-Yr Pct Chg)

来源:美国工作人员协会。

 

问题五:薪资增长能否跟上通货膨胀的步伐?

Can wage growth keep pace with inflation?

 

不能。

No.

 

限制因素是企业利润率。对于大多数行业来说,营业利润率并不是特别高,基本上处于或低于平均水平(除了金融和科技行业)。这就意味着公司需要尽可能最大限度的控制成本,而劳动力成本首当其冲。我们已经在最近的劳动力报告中看到了这些迹象,平均时薪自2021年10月份以来一直在4.9%到5.4%之间波动,而在此期间,通货膨胀每个月都在加速,从6.2%上涨到了7.9%。实际收入的紧缩正在加剧,而且三月份这一情况非常可能会持续。

The limiting factor is corporate profit margins. For most sectors, operating profit margins are not particularly high. They are at or below average levels (aside from in finance and tech). That means that companies will need to control costs to the maximum extent possible, which means labor above all else. We have already seen signs of that in the recent labor reports, where average hourly earnings have bounced between 4.9% and 5.4% year-year since Oct 2021 -- while inflation has accelerated every month, from 6.2% to 7.9%, over this period. The real income squeeze is intensifying, and it is highly likely that this continued in March.

 

图4a. 标普500各行业的营业利润率,2014年1月1日-2022年3月10日(百分比)

Figure 4a. S&P500 Operating Profit Margin by Sector, 1 Jan 2014 - 10 Mar 2022 (Pct)

来源:DeepMacro, Inc., Bloomberg.